The PROSPER Model
Understand the Patient. Predict the Stay.
PROSPER uses patient, medical, surgical and procedural data to generate a patient-specific length-of-stay prediction before surgery - with complication risk as a supporting output.
What Goes In
PROSPER integrates four categories of pre-operative information to build an individualised patient profile.
Patient Factors
Age, sex, frailty, functional status and body composition.
Medical History
Comorbidities, medications, previous surgical history and organ function.
Surgical Factors
Planned procedure, surgical complexity and operative approach.
Procedural Context
Urgency, setting, anaesthetic considerations and care pathway.
What Comes Out
Expected Length of Stay
A patient-specific LOS prediction - the primary output of PROSPER - expressed as an expected duration with a plausible range.
Complication Risk Profile
Risk estimates for key perioperative complications, presented as supporting context for clinical decision-making.
PROSPER supports, but does not replace, clinical judgement. All predictions should be interpreted by a qualified clinician.
Risk Prediction Adds Context. Length of Stay Drives Planning.
PROSPER is primarily a length-of-stay prediction tool. Complication risk estimates are generated as secondary outputs to provide clinical context — they are not the primary purpose of the tool. LOS prediction is what enables bed planning, discharge preparation and resource allocation.
From Assessment to Discharge
Assessment
Pre-operative patient data is captured across four domains.
Prediction
PROSPER generates an expected LOS and supporting risk profile.
Planning
Clinical teams and hospital planners use the prediction to prepare.
Surgery
The patient undergoes their planned procedure.
Recovery
Post-operative care is aligned with the predicted pathway.
Discharge
Discharge is prepared in advance, reducing delays and uncertainty.
Try the PROSPER Calculator
The PROSPER calculator is available online. Enter patient and procedure data to generate a patient-specific length-of-stay prediction.
Open the CalculatorFor evaluation and research purposes. Not for clinical use without appropriate validation in your setting.